BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

Hard to believe Triple Crown season is already winding down!  Its been and interesting year considering we have no Triple Crown on the line.  From the Derby DQ to Bodexpress running the Preakness on his own accord without a jockey, it’s been wild.  What will the Belmont have in store?  Here are my plays for Saturday’s card.

 Race 3 Easy Goer S. Post Time – 12:47 PM

#4 Outshine (9-5)

#5 Majid (6-1)

#6 Alwaysmining (6-5)

 Race 4 Longines Just a Game S. (G1) Post Time – 1:22 PM

#7 Got Stormy (6-1)

#4 Rushing Fall (4-5)

#3 Beau Recall (4-1)

Race 5 Ogden Phipps S. (G1) Post Time – 2:01 PM

#2 Midnight Bisou (1-1)

#3 Pacfic Wind (12-1)

#1 Come Dancing (6-5)

 Race 6 Jaipur Invitational S. (G1) Post Time – 2:41 PM

#8 World of Trouble (1-1)

#2 Om (8-1)

#6 Disco Partner (3-1)

 Race 7 Acorn S. (G1) Post Time – 3:22 PM

#7 Guarana (2-1)

#9 Ce Ce (9-2)

#3 Cookie Dough (6-1)

 Race 8 Woody Stephens S. (G1) Post Time – 4:04 PM

#1 Honest Mischief (6-1)

#6 Nitrous (10-1)

#9 Mind Control (5-2)

Race 9 Runhappy Metropolitan H. (G1) Post Time – 4:46 PM

#1 Coal Front (6-1)

#3 Mitole (3-1)

#4 Thunder Snow (5-1)

 Race 10 Manhattan S. (G1) Post Time – 5:36 PM

#1 Raging Bull (10-1)

#8 Bricks and Mortar (7-5)

#10 Channel Maker (9-2)

Race 11 – Belmont Stakes (G1) Post Time – 6:37 PM
Purse $1,500,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Half Miles
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Joevia (KY)	3/C	L	J Lezcano	126	G D Sacco	30/1
2	Everfast (KY)	3/C	L	L Saez	126	D L Romans	12/1
3	Master Fencer (JPN)	3/C		J R Leparoux	126	K Tsunoda	8/1
4	Tax (KY)	3/G	L	I Ortiz, Jr.	126	D Gargan	15/1
5	Bourbon War (KY)	3/C	L	M E Smith	126	M A Hennig	12/1
6	Spinoff (KY)	3/C	L	J Castellano	126	T A Pletcher	15/1
7	Sir Winston (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	126	M E Casse	12/1
8	Intrepid Heart (KY)	3/C	L	J R Velazquez	126	T A Pletcher	10/1
9	War of Will (KY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	126	M E Casse	2/1
10	Tacitus (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	126	W I Mott	9/5

#6 Spinoff (15-1)

#10 Tacitus (9-5)

#7 Sir Winston (12-1)

Race 13 Brooklyn Invitational S. (G2) Post Time – 8:00 PM

#3 Sonneteer (10-1)

#7 You’re to Blame (3-1)

#1 Marconi (9-2)

 

Suggested Plays

Race 3

$5 Trifecta

4 w 5,6 w 5,6 = $10

$5 Trifecta

4,5 w 4,5 w 6 = $10

Race 4

$1 Trifecta

7 w 3,4 w ALL = $10

$2 Pick 3

3,4,7 w 2,3 w 8 = $12

Race 6

$10 Exacta

8 w 2,6 = $20

$2 Pick 3

8 w 7 w 1,4,6,9 = $8

Race 7

$10 Win

#7 Guarana = $10

$5 GSL

7 w 1 w 1,3,4 w 1 = $15

Race 8

$.50 Pick 4

1,6,9 w 1,2,3,4,6 w 1,8 w 6,7,10 = $45

Race 9

$1 Trifecta

1 w 3,4 w ALL = $14

$1 Trifecta

3,4 w 1 w ALL = $14

Race 10

$.50 Pick 4

1,8 w 6,7,10 w 1,4,10 w 1,3,6,7 = $36

Race 11

$2 Exacta Box

6,7,10 = $12

$5 WPS

#6 Spinoff = $15

Race 13

$1 Trifecta

3 w 1,6,7 w 1,2,6,7,8 = $12

1,6,7 w 3 w 1,2,6,7,8 = $12

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

We’ve had our hands full in the Watchandwager office this week so I didn’t have time to do full race write-ups, but these are my top three selections for all of the Stake races on Kentucky Derby Saturday. I’ll be rooting for safe trips for all and looking to add a few zeros to my bank account.  Best of luck!

 Race 6 Humana Distaff S. (G1) Post Time – 1:13 PM

#4 Talk Veuve to Me (4-1)

#7 Marley’s Freedom (7-5)

#2 Spiced Perfection (7-2)

 Race 7 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (G2) Post Time – 1:55 PM

#9 Environs (8-1)

#6 Precieuse (3-1)

#8 Got Stormy (8-1)

Race 8 Churchill Downs S. (G1) Post Time – 2:45 PM

#8 Mitole (7-2)

#7 Warrior’s Club (12-1)

#6 Promises Fulfilled (4-1)

 Race 9 American Turf S. (G2) Post Time – 3:37 PM

#5 Seismic Wave (8-1)

#9 War Film (15-1)

#2 Social Paranoia (10-1)

 Race 10 Pat Day Mile S. (G3) Post Time – 4:28 PM

#10 Instagrand (6-5)

#11 Frolic More (20-1)

#14 Last Judgement (5-1)

 Race 11 Old Forester Turf Classic S. (G1) Post Time – 5:25 PM

#8 Breaking the Rules (15-1)

#12 Bricks and Mortar (5-2)

#9 Synchrony (8-1)

 Race 12 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) Post Time – 6:50 PM

Purse $3,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds. One and One Fourth Miles.
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	War of Will (KY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	126	M E Casse	20/1
2	Tax (KY)	3/G	L	J Alvarado	126	D Gargan	20/1
3	By My Standards (KY)	3/C	L	G Saez	126	W B Calhoun	20/1
4	Gray Magician (KY)	3/C	L	D Van Dyke	126	P Miller	50/1
5	Improbable (KY)	3/C	L	I Ortiz, Jr.	126	B Baffert	6/1
6	Vekoma (KY)	3/C	L	J Castellano	126	G Weaver	20/1
7	Maximum Security (KY)	3/C	L	L Saez	126	J Servis	10/1
8	Tacitus (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	126	W I Mott	10/1
9	Plus Que Parfait (KY)	3/R	L	R Santana, Jr.	126	B P Walsh	30/1
10	Cutting Humor (KY)	3/C	L	C J Lanerie	126	T A Pletcher	30/1
11	Haikal (KY)	3/C	L	R Maragh	126	K P McLaughlin	30/1
12	Omaha Beach (KY)	3/C	L	M E Smith	126	R E Mandella	SCR
13	Code of Honor (KY)	3/C	L	J R Velazquez	126	C R McGaughey III	15/1
14	Win Win Win (FL)	3/C	L	J Pimentel	126	M J Trombetta	15/1
15	Master Fencer (JPN)	3/C		J R Leparoux	126	K Tsunoda	50/1
16	Game Winner (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	126	B Baffert	5/1
17	Roadster (KY)	3/C	L	F Geroux	126	B Baffert	6/1
18	Long Range Toddy (KY)	3/C	L	J K Court	126	S M Asmussen	30/1
19	Spinoff (KY)	3/C	L	M Franco	126	T A Pletcher	30/1
20	Country House (KY)	3/C	L	F Prat	126	W I Mott	30/1
Also Eligibles:
21	Bodexpress (KY)	3/C	L	C Landeros	126	G Delgado	30/1

 #5 Improbable (6-1)

#6 Vekoma (20-1)

#17 Roadster (6-1)

 

Suggested Plays

Race 6

 $10 Exacta

4 w 2,7 = $20

Race 7

 $5 Exacta Box

6,9 = $10

$1 Trifecta

9 w 6,8 w ALL = $16

$1 Pick 3

6,9 w 8 w 2,5,8,9,12 = $15

Race 8

$1 Trifecta

8 w 6,7 w 4,5,6,7,10,12 = $10

 $.50 Pick 5

8 w 2,5,8,9 w 10,14 w 8,12 w 3,5,6,8,14,17 = $48

Race 9

 $2 Exacta Box

2,5,8,9 = $24

Race 10

 $5 Double

10,11,14 w 8 = $15

Race 11

$2 Exacta Key Box

8 w 1,3,6,9,10,12 = $24

Race 12

$.50 Trifecta

5,6 w 3,5,6,8,14,17 w 2,3,5,6,8,10,14,16,17,19,20,21 = $50

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

After a crazy few months of Kentucky Derby prep season, we’ll finally know who’s made it into the 2019 Kentucky Derby field after Saturday. Of course, there will likely be a defection or two in the weeks leading up to the first leg of the Triple Crown, but we can safely begin debating with ourselves and others exactly how we’re going to nail that Derby superfecta this year. This weekends’ Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is the final prep race of the spring and the 1^st and 2^nd place finishers will likely be guaranteed a spot in the gate.  The disparity in winners this year has created what will likely be a record point minimum needed to get into the Kentucky Derby field.  That means the only horse in this field who has their spot secured is Long Range Toddy who currently sits at #11 on the leaderboard with 53.5 points.  Omaha Beach, Improbable, and Country House all need to run in the trifecta to secure a spot.  The rest of the field needs to run 2^nd or better.  The Stakes are higher than ever!

Weather Forecast: Heavy Rains are expected throughout the morning and into the afternoon on Saturday.  I recommend handicapping for an off track.

Race 11 – Arkansas Derby (G1) Post Time – 6:43 PM
Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Eighth Miles
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Improbable (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	122	B Baffert	8/5
2	Six Shooter (KY)	3/G	L	D Cohen	122	P E Holthus	30/1
3	Omaha Beach (KY)	3/C	L	M E Smith	122	R E Mandella	2/1
4	Tikhvin Flew (KY)	3/C	L	T Baze	118	S M Asmussen	30/1
5	Laughing Fox (KY)	3/C	L	R Santana, Jr.	118	S M Asmussen	20/1
6	Gray Attempt (KY)	3/C	L	S Elliott	122	W H Fires	8/1
7	Galilean (CA)	3/C	L	F Prat	122	J Hollendorfer	10/1
8	Country House (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	118	W I Mott	12/1
9	One Flew South (KY)	3/C	L	C H Borel	118	D F O’Neill	50/1
10	Jersey Agenda (KY)	3/C	L	R A Vazquez	118	S M Asmussen	30/1
11	Long Range Toddy (KY)	3/C	L	J K Court	122	S M Asmussen	5/1

I thought #3 Omaha Beach ran a very game race when he narrowly beat Game Winner last out in the 2^nd division of the Rebel Stakes.  I think he improves off that performance and makes it two for two over the Oaklawn surface.  This horse has improved his beyer numbers in every one of his starts.  The son of War Front has already won over a wet surface and he has two bullet works since his Rebel win.  I expect Mike Smith to be very forwardly placed throughout and a he’ll just be too much for the others at the end.

Bob Baffert puts the blinkers on #1 Improbable for the first time, which isn’t a common move from the Hall of Famer, but his numbers are strong when he does it.  The son of City Zip finished 2^nd in the first division of the Rebel Stakes last out after being floated wide for pretty much the entirety of the race.  A wide trip should not be an issue in this race with the rail post positioning.  Jose Ortiz has the mount for the first time after the connections decided to replace Drayden Van Dyke.

I have yet to hop on the bandwagon of #7 Galilean, but he did run better than I had expected in last months first division of the Rebel Stakes and I do believe he is an underneath contender in here.  It was just announced earlier this week that Coolmore Stud has bought into the Uncle Mo colt, so they seem to be sold on his capabilities.  Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has decided to take the blinkers off, which I would expect to put him a little further from the pace than he usually is.  We’ll see how the track is playing early in the day, but I would expect Flavien Prat to still be within striking distance and not too far out of it.

#8 Country House shows up in this spot because his connections believe he is a Kentucky Derby caliber horse, but he failed to pick up enough points after running 4^th in the Louisiana Derby.  He doesn’t possess a lot of gate speed which has caused him to find traffic in just about all his starts so far.  I don’t expect his running style to change and unless we get a super-hot pace up front, I think it will be too little too late for the Bill Mott trainee.  He does get a rider change from Saez to Rosario and perhaps Joel can get a little more out of him.

Suggested Plays

 Race 11

 $1 Superfectas

 3 w 1 w 7,8 w ALL = $16

3 w 1 w ALL w 7,8 = $16

3 w 7,8 w 1 w ALL = $16

3 w 7,8 w ALL w 1 = $16

Bonus Play: $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12)

ALL w 2,4 w 3 w 3,5,6,7,8,10,11 = $63

Or

ALL w 2,4,10 w 1,3 w 3 = $27

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

As someone who resides in Lexington, Kentucky I can tell you that opening weekend of the Keeneland Spring meet is one of those events you look forward to, but feel as if it’s never going to come. I wouldn’t exactly compare Winter in Kentucky to Antarctica, but it sure does drag on.  The forecast calls for some beautiful weather for opening weekend and you can pair that up with some fantastic racing, a recipe that shouldn’t disappoint.  Saturday’s card is especially good with a total of five Stakes races and is highlighted by the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.  With the Kentucky Derby just a month away, the Blue Grass is one of the last remaining chances for three-year-old’s to earn their way into the starting gate.  Let’s look the race!

Race 10 – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Post Time – 6:23 PM
Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year Old’s. One and One Eighth Miles
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Somelikeithotbrown (NY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	123	M J Maker	10/1
2	Vekoma (KY)	3/C	L	J Castellano	123	G Weaver	9/5
3	Signalman (KY)	3/C	L	B J Hernandez, Jr.	123	K G McPeek	5/1
4	Market King (KY)	3/C	L	J K Court	123	D W Lukas	20/1
5	Chess Chief (VA)	3/C	L	P Lopez	123	D Stewart	30/1
6	Dream Maker (KY)	3/C	L	F Geroux	123	M E Casse	12/1
7	Admire (KY)	3/C	L	R Albarado	123	D L Romans	15/1
8	Win Win Win (FL)	3/C	L	I Ortiz, Jr.	123	M J Trombetta	7/2
9	Sir Winston (KY)	3/C	L	J R Leparoux	123	M E Casse	15/1
10	Lucky Lee (KY)	3/C	L	C Landeros	123	J C Servis	20/1
11	So Alive (KY)	3/C	L	L Saez	123	T A Pletcher	15/1
12	Parsimony (PA)	3/C	L	M Gutierrez	123	D F O’Neill	20/1
13	Moonster (KY)	3/C	L	J McKee	123	D L Romans	30/1
14	Aquadini (KY)	3/C	L	C J Lanerie	123	D Stewart	30/1

With such a big field this very well could turn out to be a rider’s race. I would imagine a handful of horses will lose ground going into the first turn and that may end up being enough to cost them a chance at a win.  The horse I like in here and who should not experience any ground loss is #1 Somelikeithotbrown.  This colt comes out of the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park which many view as a “weaker” prep compared to the traditional dirt preps.  I think a mistake many handicappers make is labeling a horse a “dirt” or a “turf” horse early on in their careers.  Just because this horse has done most of his running on turf and synthetic, I still feel it is highly probable he can be just as talented on a dirt surface.  Just look at last weekend’s Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow.  With that said, you should get a fair price on the Mike Maker trainee.  Tyler Gaffalione will have the opportunity to establish a solid early position with the rail post and he can also take back if some of the outside horses send.  Either way he has a strong chance to be there at the end and cash some nice tickets.

#6 Dream Maker is a horse many people are going to toss after the clunker he ran in last month’s Tampa Bay Derby.  He broke poorly that day and never really did any running.  It’s encouraging to see that Mark Casse has clearly not lost any faith in this colt by entering in this spot.  I love the bullet work over the track on March 30^th.  If Florent Geroux can find a spot behind the leaders with minimal kickback I think this one could run big.

At odds of 7/2 on the morning-line #8 Win Win Win seems like an underlay, but I do think this horse can make a dent in the exotics.  This colt ran a 99 beyer two back in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay, that is higher than any other horse in this field.  He closed well to pick up 3^rd in the Tampa Bay Derby last out and he has two solid works since then.  Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for trainer Michael Trombetta.

The connections of #7 Admire are no stranger to this race.  They were victorious with Brody’s Cause in 2016.  They may find it a little more difficult to find the winners circle with this one, however I think he provides a lot of value to your tickets.  This son of Cairo Prince will need to improve off his last two efforts, where he was a non-threat.  He was 5^th in the Grade 3 Withers and 7^th in the Tampa Bay Derby.  I used him underneath in both of those races and I want to give him one more chance here.  He’s also the only horse in the field with a win at the one and one eighth mile distance.

Suggested Plays

 Race 10

$13 Win/Place

 #1 Somelikeithotbrown

$2 Exacta Box

 1,6,7,8 = $24

Bonus Play: $400,000 Guaranteed All Stakes Pick 4 (Races 7-10)

11 w 4,5,8,9 w 1,6,7 w 1,2,3,6,7,8,11 = $42

or

6,9,11 w 9 w 1,6,7 w  1,2,3,6,7,8,11 = $31.50

(With the scratch of Feedback, Imprimis and Shamrock Rose look like the two best single of the sequence in my eyes. Imprimis is 6 for 7 lifetime going five and one half furlongs on the grass.)

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

This Saturday War of Will tries for the complete sweep of the three Kentucky Derby prep races held at Fair Grounds Race Course. The Mark Casse trained son of War Front has already taken down the Grade 3 LeComte and Grade 2 Risen Star in overwhelming fashion.  Those two victories put him at the top of the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard.  He is already guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate, no matter the outcome of this weekend’s race.  Can his competitors turn the tables this weekend or will we see another dominant performance from the points leader?  A total of 180 points will be on the line for this contest with 100 going to the winner.  The top two finishers should lock up a date at Churchill Downs this May.  The Louisiana Derby will cap off a 13-race card that features a whopping eight stakes, four of which are Graded.

Race 13 – Louisiana Derby (G2) Post Time – 5:13 PM
Purse $1,000,000. For Three Year Olds. One and One Eighth Miles.
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Roiland (KY)	3/C	L	J Graham	122	T M Amoss	12/1
2	Lemniscate (FL)	3/C	L	B J Hernandez, Jr.	122	K G McPeek	15/1
3	Limonite (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	122	S M Asmussen	20/1
4	Sueno (KY)	3/C	L	C J Lanerie	122	J K Desormeaux	8/1
5	By My Standards (KY)	3/C	L	G Saez	122	W B Calhoun	12/1
6	War of Will (KY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	122	M E Casse	6/5
7	Mr. Money (KY)	3/C	L	A Beschizza	122	W B Calhoun	20/1
8	Country House (KY)	3/C	L	L Saez	122	W I Mott	9/2
9	Bankit (NY)	3/C	L	I Ortiz, Jr.	122	S M Asmussen	20/1
10	Spinoff (KY)	3/C	L	J R Velazquez	122	T A Pletcher	8/1
11	Hog Creek Hustle (KY)	3/C	L	M Mena	122	V L Foley	12/1

In last weekend’s two divisions of the Rebel Stakes we saw both favorites go down and it triggered some big payouts. I’m a big fan of War of Will, but as a bettor I need to make the smart move and take some shots against him.

I very much doubt you get anywhere near the morning-line price of 8/1, but #10 Spinoff looks like the play in here.  Distance shouldn’t be a problem for this well-bred son of Hard Spun, who is out of the G1W mare Zaftig.  This colt showed talent early on, breaking his maiden on debut last summer as a two-year-old.  He made his second start in the Saratoga Special, finishing a decent 3^rd before he went up on the shelf for the remainder of the year.  Pletcher elected to bring him back in an allowance last month at Tampa Bay where he won by double digit lengths.  Interestingly John Velazquez also made the trip that day and these two will pair up again on Saturday.  If you happened to forget, Pletcher and Velazquez were victorious in last year’s Louisiana Derby with Noble Indy.  Look for Johnny to hustle out of the gate and establish decent position from the 10-hole going into the first turn.  If he has the talent, we’re going to see a horse race in the final eighth of a mile.

#8 Country House was my pick in the Risen Star Stakes, and he gave me a glimmer of hope as he was closing in deep stretch.  That hope didn’t last long because the Bill Mot trainee began to lug in behind War of Will, who had a two-length lead at that point.  Luis Saez was not able to get the son of Lookin At Lucky straightened out in time and he glided home in hand to finish 2^nd.  Now I’m not sure he was going to pass the winner that day anyhow, but if he’s able to avoid that on Saturday then maybe he can flip the script.  If the pace sets up like that of the Risen Star, he could make it interesting as he gets an extra sixteenth of a mile to work with here.

As I said, #6 War of Will is the horse to beat, but I think those two above are the ones that can do it.  You also must consider that this horse has already racked up enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate and that’s the goal for these connections.  I don’t expect Mark Casse to back off on his training tactics, but I don’t think he wants to ruin his chance at the roses either.  He’s had three breezes since his last start, the last of which was a sharp half mile in :47.3.  He gets a better post draw then his last contest and Tyler Gaffalione has shown that this horse is able to utilize his tactical speed and then pounce when the time is right.  I don’t expect that to change, but maybe he gets a little stiffer challenge her.  I’m looking forward to it!

After these three there is really a few different horses that could fill out the superfecta. #1 Roiland and #11 Hog Creek Hustle closed well in the Risen Star.  #2 Lemniscate, #4 Sueno, and #5 By My Standards, all look to break onto the scene.  The horse I’m interested in however is the #3 Limonite.  This horse had to check multiple times in the stretch of the Risen Star and finished well after finally getting clear.  You get a positive rider upgrade from Brian Hernandez to Jose Ortiz and he has the chance to improve 2^nd off the layoff, a 20 percent angle for trainer Steve Asmussen.  It’s also possible the son of Lemon Drop Kid will relish the extra ground.  Those are my picks!

Suggested Plays

 Race 13

$10 Win

#10 Spinoff

$1 Superfectas

10 w 6,8 w 6,8 w 1,3,4,5 = $8

10 w 6,8 w 1,3,4,5 w 6,8 = $8

6,8 w 10 w 6,8 w 1,3,4,5 = $8

6,8 w 10 w 1,3,4,5 w 6,8 = $8

6,8 w 6,8 w 10 w 1,3,4,5 = $8

Bonus Play: $500,000 Guaranteed All Stakes Pick 4 (Races 10-13)

3,6,9,10,11 w 7 w 2,6,8 w 3,6,8,10 = $30

3,6,9,10,11 w 2,3,6,7 w 2 w 6,8,10 = $30

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

Due to the ongoing issues at Santa Anita Park and the abundance of entries it created for Saturday’s G2 Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn has split the Kentucky Derby prep into two divisions. Some love it, some hate it.  Sure, it may water down the field a touch, but a handful of these horses would not have ran in this spot to begin with.  It’ll be a great opportunity for East Coast fans to see some West Coast stars, such as Game Winner and Improbable.  Bob Baffert has won the Rebel a record six times, and now he’ll get the chance to go for seven and eight in the same year.  With the split, the purse becomes $750,000 for each division with 63.75 Kentucky Derby points allotted in each race.  Other notable races on the card include the G2 Azeri and the Essex Handicap.

Division 1
Race 8 – Rebel Stakes (G2) Post Time – 4:42 PM
Purse $750,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Sixteenth Miles
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Extra Hope (KY)	3/C	L	M E Smith	117	R E Mandella	6/1
2	Long Range Toddy (KY)	3/C	L	J K Court	119	S M Asmussen	10/1
3	Corruze (KY)	3/C	L	S Elliott	117	C A Hartman	30/1
4	Easy Shot (KY)	3/C	L	R E Eramia	117	J K Desormeaux	15/1
5	Proud Nation (KY)	3/C	L	D Cabrera	117	J Sharp	50/1
6	Ninth Street (KY)	3/C	L	R Santana, Jr.	117	S M Asmussen	50/1
7	Classy John (LA)	3/C	L	D Cohen	117	D Stewart	15/1
8	Galilean (CA)	3/C	L	F Prat	122	J Hollendorfer	3/1
9	Improbable (KY)	3/C	L	D Van Dyke	119	B Baffert	3/5

I think #9 Improbable is the best horse in Baffert’s barn and I expect him to win in this spot quite easily.  You’ll have to get creative to turn him into some value, but this isn’t a horse I want to try to beat.  The City Zip colt is three for three lifetime and has improved his speed figures in each outing.  Drayden Van Dyke will do his best to tuck in behind the leaders coming into the first turn and pounce at the appropriate time.  If all goes to plan, he’ll keep some in the tank for wherever the connections decide to point next.

I don’t plan on going crazy with vertical wagers, but if there is a price horse I think can possibly slip into the exotic picture it would be #4 Easy Shot. The Keith Desormeaux trainee put in a decent effort over a sloppy track in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last time out, finishing third to a couple of nice horses.  The son of Trappe Shot will need to improve, but he has very capable connections that can make that happen.

If you’re going by the “eye test” #8 Galilean looks like a shoo-in for second here.  He’s won his last two outings in impressive fashion and is three for four lifetime.  My issue is all four of those races were restricted stakes and now he must go up against a horse like Improbable?  The jury is still out on this one for me.

#1 Extra Hope makes the second start of his three-year-old campaign here. He was victorious in a one-mile allowance at Santa Anita at the end of January.  Shanghai Bobby is not a sire that really screams distance, but if the Richard Mandella trainee can improve off his last race he should contend for a piece of the exotics.  Mike Smith picks up the mount for the first time.

 

Division 2
Race 10 – Rebel Stakes (G2) Post Time – 6:06 PM
Purse $750,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Sixteenth Miles
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Market King (KY)	3/C	L	J R Velazquez	117	D W Lukas	30/1
2	Laughing Fox (KY)	3/C	L	R Santana, Jr.	119	S M Asmussen	10/1
3	Parsimony (PA)	3/C	L	M Gutierrez	117	D F O’Neill	30/1
4	Jersey Agenda (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	117	S M Asmussen	15/1
5	Game Winner (KY)	3/C	L	J Rosario	119	B Baffert	4/5
6	Omaha Beach (KY)	3/C	L	M E Smith	117	R E Mandella	7/2
7	Our Braintrust (MD)	3/C	L	D Cohen	117	M E Casse	6/1
8	Gunmetal Gray (KY)	3/C	L	F Prat	122	J Hollendorfer	10/1
9	Kaziranga (KY)	3/C	L	R E Eramia	117	S M Asmussen	50/1
10	Captain Von Trapp (KY)	3/C	L	R A Vazquez	119	S M Asmussen	15/1

Of the two divisions, I feel we’re much more likely to see an upset in this one. The horse I want to take a shot with on top is #7 Our Braintrust who was beat narrowly last out in the G3 Withers Stakes back in February.  The Mark Casse trainee cuts back in distance and adds blinkers, two angles that should make him a strong contender.  I also like the fact that he picks up local jockey David Cohen.  I’ll be using a few horses in my horizantal plays but I give this one a slight edge to score a win.

#6 Omaha Beach kind of reminds me of another Kentucky Derby contender and the current points leader, War of Will. Both horses are by War Front and both started their careers on the grass, only to improve after switching to dirt.  The Richard Mandella trainee is only a maiden winner but has never been worse than third in five career starts.  That last effort was very impressive and perhaps this colt has finally figured it out.

#5 Game Winner will be the obvious favorite and rightfully so considering he is the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ. Baffert is typically good off the layoff, but we shall see if the two-year-old form holds up against this field.  I expect the undefeated son of Candy Ride to come back to the pack now that others have had more time to mature.  It should also be noted that the runner ups from the Juvenile haven’t exactly come back to flatter him.

Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out a whopping six horses split between the two Rebel divisions. For some reason when entries were drawn a mistake was made and this division ended up with four of his runners.  They were supposed to be split evenly between the two divisions.  Anyway, I don’t think it affects much and the horse of his that I like in here is #2 Laughing Fox. The son of Union Rags makes his stakes debut and he will get Asmussen’s first call rider, who likely had his choice of mounts.  This colt is two for two as a three-year-old, both starts over this Oaklawn surface.  You get a fair price here for a horse that figures to improve again.

Suggested Plays

 Race 8

$1 Superfectas

9 w 4,8 w 1,4,8 w ALL = $24

9 w 4,8 w ALL w 1,4,8 = $24

Race 10

 $4 Exacta Key Box

 7 w 2,6,5 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box

 2,5,6,7 = $24

Bonus Play: All Stakes Pick 4 (Races 7-10)

5 w 9 w 2,5,6,8 w 2,4,5,6,7,10 = $12

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

The card at Turfway Park on Jeff Ruby Steaks day still provides bettors and fans alike a day of excitement, even if the feature race is no longer a serious stepping stone towards the Kentucky Derby. The beauty of the All-Weather track is that it brings together top horses from each surface and provides a little extra challenge to the handicapping.  Saturday’s 12-race card offers six Stakes races and multiple wagering opportunities, including three Pick 4 sequences.

Race 11 – (Turfway) Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) Post Time – 6:37 PM
Purse $200,000. For Three-Year-Olds. One and One Eighth Miles (All Weather Track)
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Dynamic Racer (KY)	3/C	L	E E Prentice, Jr.	123	R Kahles	15/1
2	Moonster (KY)	3/C	L	J McKee	123	D L Romans	20/1
3	Five Star General (KY)	3/C	L	D Cannon	123	A Delacour	6/1
4	Dabo (IL)	3/G	L	L Machado	123	D L Romans	10/1
5	Baytown Jimbo (KY)	3/G	L	A Achard	123	P McEntee	20/1
6	Skywire (ON)	3/C	L	G Boulanger	123	M E Casse	3/1
7	Counter Offer (KY)	3/C	L	M Franklin	123	I R Wilkes	10/1
8	Twelfthofneverland (KY)	3/C	L	S Russell	123	R Handal	12/1
9	Curlin Grey (KY)	3/C	L	B J Hernandez, Jr.	123	K G McPeek	10/1
10	Somelikeithotbrown (NY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	123	M J Maker	8/5
11	Speed App (VA)	3/C	L	W De La Cruz	123	D W Lukas	30/1

Three horses in here come out of last month’s John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, including the winner. I’m not going to get cute as I believe the Battaglia winner #10 Somelikeithotbrown is the most likely winner of this race.  The Mike Maker trainee won last out with relative ease and he didn’t look to be fully cranked off the layoff. This horse is good out of the gate and able to make his own trip which is a good quality to have in a racehorse.  Tyler Gaffalione, who is having a stellar year comes in to ride.  I expect him to lay close to the pace and pull away late.

If I’m going to take one of three horses coming out of the Sam F. Davis, its #3 Five Star General. Owned by Triple Crown winning connections of WinStar Farm, China HC, and SF Racing, this son of Distorted Humor did not have an ideal trip in that contest.  Jose Ortiz had him parked wide through much of the race and he had to check hard in traffic turning for home.  After all of that he was still able to come home in strong fashion, albeit 13-lenghts behind the winner.  Declan Cannon picks up the mount for trainer Arnaud Delacour.

#9 Curlin Grey is a deep closer, so he’ll need some pace to run at, but this horse comes out of a strong allowance race at Gulfstream park and I like him to pick off horses late and hit the trifecta. Trainer Ken McPeek can pop one in these spots and while I don’t think he can win, he’s worth a look in your exotics.

To me #6 Skywire is a bit of an underlay at the morning-line price of 3/1.  He’s two for two lifetime but those wins weren’t impressive enough for me to view him as the second choice in here.  With that being said Mark Casse and Gary Barber saw enough from this horse in his debut to buy-in and I respect that.  One of his wins was over a synthetic surface so he has that going for him.  Gary Boulanger makes the trip south to ride.

Suggested Plays

 Race 12

 $7 Exacta

 10 w 3,9 = $14

$1 Trifectas

 10 w 3,9 w ALL = $18

10 w ALL w 3,9 = $18

Bonus Plays: All Stakes Pick 4 (Races 8-11)

3,4,8 w 2,5,6,7 w ALL w 10 = $66

3,4,8 w 2 w 2,5,9,10,12 w 3,6,9,10 = $30

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

Don’t look now but we’re just 79 days away from the 2019 Kentucky Derby and that means the stakes are rising!  Saturday’s Grade 3 Risen Star will be the first Kentucky Derby prep race of the year to offer 50 points to the winner, which we all know basically guarantees a spot in the gate come May.  This year’s Risen Star has drawn a full field of 14 with an additional horse on the Also Eligible list. LeComte winner War of Will is the no doubt about it favorite, but he’s up against it after drawing the extreme outside.  Bob Baffert’s has announced Kingly will scratch so Gun It should draw in.

The Risen Star hasn’t produced much as far as the Kentucky Derby goes, with War Emblem (9^th 2002 Risen Star) being its only graduate to go on to Derby glory.  The race has however, seen two future Breeders’ Cup Classic winners come through its gate.  Gun Runner took the 2016 edition and Mucho Macho Man was victorious in 2011.  Perhaps there are a couple future stars in this year’s field.

Race 12 – Risen Star Stakes (G2) Post Time – 6:02 PM
Purse $400,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Sixteenth Miles.
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Plus Que Parfait (KY)	3/R	L	J R Leparoux	122	B P Walsh	10/1
2	Roiland (KY)	3/C	L	J Graham	122	T M Amoss	20/1
3	Mr. Money (KY)	3/C	L	G Saez	122	W B Calhoun	12/1
4	Chase the Ghost (KY)	3/C	L	M Murrill	122	D Stewart	30/1
5	Henley’s Joy (KY)	3/C	L	M Franco	122	M J Maker	10/1
6	Hog Creek Hustle (KY)	3/C	L	F Geroux	122	V L Foley	8/1
7	Manny Wah (KY)	3/C	L	C Hill	122	W M Catalano	12/1
8	Owendale (KY)	3/C	L	S Bridgmohan	122	B H Cox	6/1
9	Country House (KY)	3/C	L	L Saez	122	W I Mott	20/1
10	Limonite (KY)	3/C	L	B J Hernandez, Jr.	122	S M Asmussen	10/1
11	Dunph (KY)	3/G	L	J L Ortiz	122	M J Maker	20/1
12	Frolic More (KY)	3/C	L	C J Lanerie	122	D Stewart	10/1
13	Kingly (KY)	3/C	L	D Van Dyke	122	B Baffert	SCR
14	War of Will (KY)	3/C	L	T Gaffalione	122	M E Casse	5/2
Also Eligibles:
15	Gun It (KY)	3/C	L	R Santana, Jr.	122	S M Asmussen	10/1

If you can connect in this race you are likely to be handsomely rewarded. I plan to be rewarded with my top play in here which is the #9 Country House who is 20/1 on the morning-line, but I do expect he will take some money. This son of Lookin At Lucky debuted on the grass at Belmont back in October and has made steady improvement in each of his last two starts since.  I feel if he’s able to take another step forward he will be very dangerous in here.  He was a close 2^nd two back at Aqueduct to Kentucky Wildcat who ran 2^nd himself in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis last weekend.  The Bill Mott trainee then broke his maiden at Gulfstream last out after absolutely missing the break and spotting the field at least eight or nine lengths.  I’m not sure he beat much in his last outing, but I was very impressed with the way he did it.  Let’s hope he’s better out of the gate this time around and make some money!  Luis Saez retains the mount.

I just can’t bring myself to put #14 War of Will on top here at such a short price.  I think this horse could be a star, but he’s going to have to break well and establish solid early positioning in order to win.  We’ll see what kind of trip Tyler Gaffalione can work out aboard the Grade 3 LeComte winner.  I’ll still plan on using on my horizontal plays, but there is better value to be had in this big field.

I thought the Brendan Walsh trained #1 Plus Que Parfait ran a pretty good race last out after stumbling slightly at the break and then getting caught wide into the first turn of the Grade 3 LeComte.  The son of Point of Entry seems to enjoy this distance and I would expect Julien Leparoux will have him more forwardly placed breaking from the rail.  Strictly using on my vertical tickets.

#3 Mr. Money makes his first start since finishing 4^th in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November.  He was slated to run in last month’s Grade 3 LeComte, but his connections decided to scratch.  I like the recent works from this son of Goldencents and I think the time off should do him good.  Will probably need a career best outing to win here.  Gabe Saez rides for Bret Calhoun who just got his 3,000^th training victory this past Sunday.

Another horse I want to add in on my vertical play’s is #15 Gun It who is a well-bred son of Tapit and the first foal out of Miss Besilu.  The Steve Asmussen trainee is a former $2.6 million Keeneland September Yearling purchase that has yet to prove his worth.  He broke his maiden over this track back in December and returned to run 3^rd in an allowance contest last month over a wet track.  I’m willing to forgive his last outing as he never looked completely comfortable and did not seem to love the track that day.

Suggested Plays

 Race 12

$4 Win

#9 Country House

$5 Exacta Box

 9,14 = $10

$1 Trifecta Keys

 9 w 1,3,14,15 w 1,3,14,15 = $12

1,3,14,15 w 9 w 1,3,14,15 = $12

1,3,14,15 w 1,3,14,15 w 9 = $12

Bonus Play: $200,000 Guaranteed All Stakes Pick 4 (Races 9-12)

2,5,6 w 5,6,7,9 w 4,8 w 9,14 = $24

Good luck!

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BY: JOSHUA PRAIN

Just like last weekend’s Kentucky Derby preps, this Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes will offer a total of 17 Kentucky Derby points. More importantly we as handicappers will be gain another piece of the giant puzzle that is the Kentucky Derby prep season.  Saturday’s winner will become the early favorite for the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9^th however, no Sam. F Davis winner has ever gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.  It looks like we may finally kick the trend of rain on big race days as the chance of precipitation for tomorrow is just 20%.

Race 11 – Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) Post Time – 5:25 PM
Purse $250,000. For Three-Year Olds. One and One Sixteenth Miles.
PP	Horse	A/S	Med	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	ML
1	Counter Offer (KY)	3/C	L	A A Gallardo	118	I R Wilkes	12/1
2	Going for Gold (KY)	3/G	L	J A Bracho	118	R B Hess, Jr.	20/1
3	Knicks Go (MD)	3/C	L	A Jimenez	124	B Colebrook	5/2
4	Cave Run (KY)	3/C	L	J L Castanon	118	E G Harty	6/1
5	Moonster (KY)	3/C	L	S Camacho	118	D L Romans	30/1
6	Kentucky Wildcat (KY)	3/C	L	J Bravo	118	T Albertrani	9/2
7	Five Star General (KY)	3/C	L	J L Ortiz	118	A Delacour	4/1
8	So Alive (KY)	3/C	L	J Castellano	118	T A Pletcher	5/1
9	Well Defined (FL)	3/G	L	P Morales	122	K O’Connell	8/1
10	Still Dreaming (KY)	3/C	L	J A Vargas, Jr.	118	H G Motion	15/1

 

#6 Kentucky Wildcat is a very well-bred son of Tapit, out of MG1W dam Better Lucky. He is trained by Thomas Albertrani who also trained his dam.  This colt broke his maiden in his 3^rd start last out on Cigar Mile Day at Aqueduct.  He has improved in each start and if he is able to again, he’s a definite win candidate.  I expect a money ride from Joe Bravo who has been aboard for all three starts and retains the mount for this one.  He’s my top pick today.

Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher does not look to have the stock this year like he has had in recent years. With that said, #8 So Alive may be the most talented of what he does have in the barn and the Super Saver Colt is a half-brother to GSW Vino Rosso.  This horse showed what he was made of coming from way off the pace to win his debut at Keeneland last fall.  He followed up that performance with a dud after breaking poorly on an off-track at Churchill Downs.  Pletcher added blinkers last out and they seemed to make the difference as the colt was victorious over the Tampa Bay track.  I would expect this one to improve again and he’ll need to do just that as he makes his stakes debut.  He comes in off a bullet work at Palm Beach Downs last week.

#7 Five Star General comes in fresh for trainer Arnaud Delacour and he’ll be your likely pacesetter for this contest. He took the Central Park Stakes in front running fashion back in November.  This is the same ownership group as Justify, who may know a thing or two about spotting nice horses.  Jose Ortiz will be aboard this son of Distorted Humor and I trust the eclipse award finalist for top jockey will give him the trip he needs to finish on the board.

By far the most accomplished of this group is #3 Knicks Go who took the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland back in the fall.  He followed that up with another good showing, running 2^nd to Eclipse Award winning Juvenile Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  The son of Paynter then returned on three-weeks rest in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November where he sat just off very hot fractions over sloppy track and was not able to sustain his bid.  Trainer Ben Colebrook finally got him a bit of a breather after a tough two-year-old campaign and he returns here.  He’s clearly a win contender but I’ll play against at a short price.

Suggested Plays

Race 11

$5 WP

#6 Kentucky Wildcat

$10 Exacta Key Box

6 w 7,8 = $40

Bonus Play: Late Pick 4 (Races 9-12)

4,7,9 w 2,6,7 w 6,7,8 w 1,3,6,10 = $54

Good luck!

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BY CRYSTAL CONWAY

The recent polar vortex here in the Midwest has left us all bundled up tightly, just determined to stay inside for as long as we can.  Before this chilly weather set in it was a balmy 47 degrees here in Kentucky, so it was a perfect time to do some stallion farm visits before the start of the 2019 breeding season.

My list of farm visits included stops at Three Chimneys Farm, Lane’s End, WinStar, Hill ‘n Dale, Taylor Made Stallions, and (most anticipated) Gainesway Farm–where I planned to take full advantage of my time seeing their prized white stallion, Tapit.

A son of Pulpit from the Unbridled mare Tap Your Heels, Tapit sold as a yearling at the 2002 Keeneland September Yearling sale, where he was consigned by Fred Seitz, agent.  David Fiske picked up this grey colt for his clients (Winchell Thoroughbreds) for the sale price of $625,000.  One year later, he broke his maiden first time out in Maiden Special Weight company at Delaware Park.  Tapit came back less than a month later in the Grade 3 Laurel Futurity, where he made a bold move in the stretch and won by over four lengths.  He also earned a career high of 106 Equibase speed figure rating.

After a flat sixth place effort in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, Tapit came back to win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct–which set in stone his path to the Kentucky Derby.  A slow break from the gate and the traffic of the field cost him the Kentucky Derby, which went to eventual Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones.  After another flat effort a few months later in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby, Tapit was retired with a (3-0-0) record from six lifetime starts and earnings of $557,300.

What he lacked at the racetrack, he made up for in the breeding shed.  Tapit has been a record-setting leading sire three times in North America, with combined worldwide earnings over $140 million.  He currently commands a stud fee of $225,000, which may not sound so steep since he has been America’s No. 1 Yearling Sire for five-straight years, with almost $30 million in yearlings sold.  Tapit’s command of the sale ring has put his offspring in the capable hands of top owners and trainers that have campaigned champions such as UNTAPABLE (champion 3-year-old filly), STARDOM BOUND (champion 2-year-old filly), HANSEN (champion 2-year-old colt), UNIQUE BELLA (champion female sprinter) and over 100 other stakes winners.  His combined sale and progeny earnings over $447 million.

Tapit is not the only grey shinning star at Gainesway Farm.  This year also starts the breeding career of one of Tapit’s top sons, classic winner and stakes-record setter – TAPWRIT ($1.3 million).

A $1.2 millionr yearling out of a Grade 1-winning Successful Appeal daughter named Appealing Zophie, Tapwrit headed right to the barn of top trainer Todd Pletcher for his new connections.

A winner in his second race at 2-years-old, Tapwrit finished off 2016 with a win the Pulpit Stakes at Gulfstream Park.  He came back in February of his 3-year-old year with a second place finish in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs to multiple graded stakes winner McCraken ($869,728). Tapwrit was Derby Trail-bound and followed that with a win in the Grade 2 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, where also posted a career best 111 Equibase speed rating.  A steadied sixth place effort in the Kentucky Derby’s field of 20 was followed by two-length win in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes over a tiring Irish War Cry.  After the Belmont Stakes, Tapwrit never found his way back to the winner’s circle.  He ran an even fourth in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga later that summer, defeating Derby winner Always Dreaming and previous winner McCraken.

Celebrating his 19^th Birthday this year is the world traveler, Empire Maker.  A homebred son of Unbridled from Juddmonte Farm, this royally-bred colt is out of 2002 Broodmare of The Year, Toussaud–another Juddmonte homebred, who is the dam of five Grade 1 winners.  Empire Maker was a winner in his first start for trainer Robert Frankel and soon followed up that win with a victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  From Florida to New York, he won back-to-back starts with a win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial before running second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby to fan favorite Funny Cide.  Empire Maker later made it known he was the king with a win in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, thus ending the Triple Crown bid for Funny Cide and also posting a career high 115 Equibase Speed Figure.

Juddmonte Farm got his stud career rolling but shocked breeders in 2010 with the announcement that Empire Maker had been sold for stud duties to Japan.

With the success of offspring such a Pioneerof the Nile, three-time champion Royal Delta, and sire Bodemeister, it was an easy decision for the owners of Gainesway Farm and partner Don Alberto Stud to partner 50/50 to purchase the stallion and ship him back to the United States.  He became a valuable addition to their stallion roster with the success of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah (the son of Pioneerof The Nile), who had retired to stud down the road at Coolmore.

*Photos by Crystal Conway