Keeneland/Woodbine All-Turf Pick 4 – Analysis with suggested plays

BY JOSHUA PRAIN

 

Keeneland and Woodbine have teamed up to offer a unique Pick 4 tomorrow, October 13th featuring three Grade 1 events and an Allowance race, all of which will be ran over turf.  Hopefully this fun wager will attract a sizeable pool, considering the irregularity of it, along with decent field sizes.  With how crazy Keeneland has been so far this meet, it will be a breath of fresh air only having to handicap two races for the sequence rather than a full four.  Very much looking forward to these world class races.

Race 9 – (Keeneland) The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1) Post Time – 5:30 PM
Purse $500,000. For Fillies, Three Years Old. By invitation only. One and One Eighth Miles (Turf).
PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer ML
1 Nyaleti (IRE) 3/F C J Lanerie 121 M Johnston 5/1
2 Princess Warrior (KY) 3/F B J Hernandez, Jr. 121 K G McPeek 15/1
3 Fatale Bere (FR) 3/F L K J Desormeaux 121 L Powell 5/1
4 Daddy Is a Legend (PA) 3/F L R Albarado 121 G Weaver 6/1
5 Mission Impassible (IRE) 3/F F Geroux 121 J Rouget 6/1
6 Secret Message (KY) 3/F L J L Vargas, Jr. 121 H G Motion 12/1
7 Capla Temptress (IRE) 3/F J R Leparoux 121 W I Mott 8/1
8 Rushing Fall (KY)  3/F L J Castellano 121 C C Brown 7/5

 

Many players will be singling in this leg, using the deserving favorite #8 Rushing Fall.  As much as I’d like to play against her, I don’t see many scenarios where last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf champ doesn’t win this race.  She’s had two months off since her win in the Grade 2 Lake Placid.  Her goal is obviously next month’s Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, but I still believe trainer Chad Brown has her completely ready to go to tackle this one.  She’ll be my single as well.

I think #2 Princess Warrior is the price horse you need to try to slip into your exotics.  After running on dirt in 8 of her first 9 starts, it looks like the connections finally figured out the Midshipman filly prefers the turf.  She hasn’t missed the board in her last three, all on the green stuff.  She ran 2nd last out at Kentucky Downs to a nice filly in Osare, who is a half sister to Arrogate.  Last two works have been sharp.

In my eyes the rest of the field looks to be evenly matched. #1 Nyaleti (IRE) is a multiple Graded Stakes Winner in Europe but has not been able to breakthrough at the Grade 1 level.  Its possible she is classier than the rest, but she gets an ice-cold rider in Corey Lanerie, who has not won a race yet this meet.  She is also making her second trip across the pond in two months time.  That travel could catch up to her.

Race 9 – (Woodbine) The Pattison Canadian International Stakes (G1) Post Time – 5:41 PM
Purse $800,000. For Three-Year Olds and Upward. One and One Half Miles (Turf).
PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer ML
1 Markitoff (KY) 4/C L I Ortiz, Jr. 126 M J Maker 20/1
2 Thundering Blue (KY) 5/G F Berry 126 D Menuisier 2/1
3 Khan (GER) 4/C C Lecoeuvre 126 H Grewe 10/1
4 Funtastic (KY) 4/C L J R Velazquez 126 C C Brown 8/1
5 Tiz a Slam (ON) 4/C L S R Bahen 126 R L Attfield 20/1
6 Spring Quality (PA) 6/G L E S Prado 126 H G Motion 4/1
7 English Illusion (ON) 5/G L R M Hernandez 126 S Pion 15/1
8 Bandua (KY) 3/C L A Beschizza 121 J Sisterson 20/1
9 Johnny Bear (ON) 7/G L L Contreras 126 A Brnjas 8/1
10 Desert Encounter (IRE) 6/G L1 A Atzeni 126 D Simcock 6/1
11 Focus Group (KY) 4/C L J L Ortiz 126 C C Brown 10/1

 

The second leg of this sequence brings us north of the border to Woodbine. You may remember last year’s Pattison when Bullards Alley drew off to win by an astonishing 10-lengths.  I doubt we’ll see another performance like that anytime soon, but this year’s field should put on a show.

It’s quite possible the European favorite is just better than this group and he’ll be on some of my tickets, but there are a couple others I’m interested in more. #11 Focus Group takes a big time step up in class and I really love the confidence from trainer Chad Brown.  The son of Kitten’s Joy was a winner in his Stakes debut last out at Saratoga.  I believe this horse is getting better with age and he seems to relish the long distance.  I’ll look for him and Jose Ortiz to pop at a nice price.

This race very well could end up being a jockey’s race and if that’s the case there is nobody I’d rather have than Johnny V. #4 Funtastic also goes out for trainer Chad Brown.  The son of More Than Ready was able to steal one on the front end in the United Nations at Monmouth in the start of the summer.  He could get pressed by #3 Khan (GER), but if not, I think he’s a candidate to steal it on the front end.

The flashy grey #2 Thundering Blue will be coming from the back of the pack and has a very good late turn of foot.  He comes in in very good form, not missing the board in his last four outings.  I’m not fond of taking closers at a short price, especially at this distance.  I’ll likely try to beat him in verticals while still using in my Pick 4’s.

 

Race 10 – (Keeneland) Allowance N3X Post Time – 6:03 PM
Purse $73,000. For Fillies and Mares, Three-Year Olds and Upward. One and One Sixteenth Miles. (Turf)
PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer ML
1 Youngest Daughter (KY) 4/F L E Morales 1165 V H Oliver 5/1
2 Mo Knows (KY) 5/M L K J Desormeaux 121 W A Ward 6/1
3 Dynatail (KY) 4/F L J Castellano 121 M Dini 4/1
4 Blue Collar (KY) 4/F L B J Hernandez, Jr. 121 E Kenneally 20/1
5 Now Power (KY) 6/M L J R Leparoux 121 R Brisset 9/2
6 You Cheated (KY) 5/M L R Albarado 123 J A Ortiz 5/1
7 Na Pali Spirit (KY) 4/F L D Cannon 121 I Correas, IV 8/1
8 Vagabond Princess (KY) 5/M L J Gilligan 121 J L Sanchez 6/1
9 Dutch Parrot (AR) 4/F L R Santana, Jr. 123 W B Van Meter 20/1
10 Smart Emma (KY) 5/M L J Graham 121 D C Peitz 6/1
11 Crafty’s Way (IL) 5/M L C Landeros 123 B Williamson 20/1
12 Dagney’s Warrior (FL) 3/F L J Rocco, Jr. 118 M A Tomlinson 6/1
Also Eligibles:
1A Valentine Wish (KY) 4/F L S Camacho, Jr. 123 V H Oliver 5/1
13 Last Promise Kept (KY) 4/F L J A Vargas, Jr. 121 T F Proctor 3/1

 

This N3X Allowance looks to be very competitive and it could come down to whoever sits the best trip. While I’m not on any big prices in this race, Keeneland has been madness so far this meet and sometimes when you zig, they zag.  If #13 Last Promise Kept draws in, she’s surely the horse to beat.  We’ll have to wait and see if that happens.  Of the main entrants my top pick would have to be #5 Now Power. Trainer Rudolphe Brisset looks to get off the duck with this daughter of Tiznow.  I’d expect Julien Leparoux to have her on or near the lead where she likes to be.

#8 Vagabond Princess gets some much-needed class relief and that may be enough to get her picture taken.  Her beyer figures put her in the top tier of this field and you get a fair price of 6/1.  My only worry would be her rider Jack Gilligan is historically bad at Keeneland and he also looks to get off the duck for the meet.

#3 Dynatail is a luke warm morning-line favorite and my guess is she will also be the post-time favorite.  This one has also been facing much better and has been competitive in those races.  Mike Dini doesn’t typically run many at Keeneland and I doubt he would ship if he wasn’t extremely live.  She’ll have to prove she can win at today’s distance, which she has yet to do in her lifetime.

Race 10 – (Woodbine) E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) Post Time – 6:18 PM
Purse $500,000. For Fillies and Mares, Three-Year Olds and Upward. One and One Fourth Miles (Turf).
PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer ML
1 Sky Full of Stars (GER) 4/F A Beschizza 124 H Grewe 15/1
2 Santa Monica (GB) 5/M L J L Ortiz 124 C C Brown 5/2
3 Pollara (IRE) 3/F L1 I Ortiz, Jr. 120 C C Brown 6/1
4 Sheikha Reika (FR) 3/F A Atzeni 120 R Varian 12/1
5 Golden Legend (FR) 4/F A Badel 124 H F Devin 4/1
6 Summer Luck (KY) 4/F L E R Da Silva 124 M E Casse 20/1
7 Starship Jubilee (FL) 5/M L L Contreras 124 K Attard 8/1
8 Elysea’s World (IRE) 5/M L J Bravo 124 C C Brown 7/2
9 Proctor’s Ledge (KY) 4/F L J R Velazquez 124 B P Walsh 8/1

 

Chad Brown once again has another strong presence, sending out three horses in this one. I like his longest shot of the three, #3 Pollara (IRE). This filly is very lightly raced and makes her North American debut in here.  Brown is very good with these types and she gets Lasix for the first time.

#2 Santa Monica (GB) was compromised by slow fractions when finishing 2nd last out in the Grade 2 Glen Falls at Saratoga. While I don’t feel they will be flying in here I think they go fast enough for her to have a shot to run them down late.  She was a winner over this course two back at today’s distance.

#7 Starship Jubilee put on a big-time performance last out in the Grade 2 Canadian. This mare trains locally and loves the track, which makes it hard to leave her off your tickets.  If she can duplicate her last outing, she’s very live in here.  I don’t expect the 8/1 morning line price to hold.

Suggested Plays: Keeneland/Woodbine All-Turf Pick 4

8 w 1,2,3,4,10,11 w 3,5,8 w 1,2,3,5,6,7 = $54

8 w 2,4,11 w 3,5,8,9,10,12 w 2,3,7 = $27

(Add #13 in 3rd leg if she draws into main body of field)

 

Good luck!

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